Trillyawns

Trillions are long and boring numbers, and Bernanke's great at counting.

[Check the WSJ and GettyImages for background ]

A power vacuum between Bush and Obama!

In case you have not noticed, today, between 12 noon and 12:04, the United States of America had no recognized leader. The 20th amendment prescribes

The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January

At noon, on this January 20th, 2009, George W. Bush's term had thankfully ended, but it wasn't until 12:04 that Barak H. Obama had pronounced the solemn "so help me God!" delayed by an anticlimactic organization to the political event of the century and even a slight blunder by Justice Roberts. I would be surprised if anyone complained, but can't help wondering who was formally in charge during those suspenseful four minutes. Perhaps Joe Biden who had been sworn in just before noon? I suppose so if you interpret ceremonial tie-up as failure to qualify in section 3 of the same article:

If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified

Be that as it may, such vacuum sets an even deeper break with the eight years of damaging continuity of power that preceded it!

The Continuity of Hope

In an inauguration appropriately punctuated by emotion, John Williams' arrangement of Air and Simple Gifts was an exquisite homage to the playful hope of Copland's Appalachian Spring. The theme itself can be traced back to a the Shacker song Simple Gifts. This, can be regarded as a hymn to the basic values that our new president, Barack Hussein Obama, has been advocating from the outset of his campaign and stressed in his inaugural address. Hope is audacious after years of straying from those values, but this musical theme too reminded us that those values are at the foundation of our culture and that we were once living by them.

After the Audacity of Hope there comes the Continuity of Hope.

Bleep Them!

'They're not willing to give me anything but appreciation. Bleep them,' close quote. And again, the bleep is a redaction. Patrick Fitzgerald, U.S. Attorney

Thus the wiretapped governor of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich (D), alluded to the Obama's team refusal to reward him for appointing their favorite candidate for the US Senate seat that the president elect vacated in late November. The seeming foolishness of a high official who, aware of being under surveillance, (allegedly) escalated his corrupt dealings can be easily explained with that age-old trait of human nature: hubris. The Greeks codified it in Tragedy and it's still raging with all its blinding fire. Obama's critic were predictably quick with the obvious smearing associations. They failed to noticed that if Barack had survived the much stickier association with Tony Rezko this new allegations were much less likely to stick. Obama's supporters, on the other hand, seem to have missed the silver lining. The inability of the Rezko's mud to stick was already a sign of Barack's integrity: how else can you survive when surrounded by a pack of ravenous wolves, no media infatuation can rescue, you are on your own! But Blago's debacle is also a powerful reminder that Barack politically grew up in one of the most corrupt milieux in the US, and the very fact that he hoped and inspired hoped while most were succumbing to the temptation of business as usual is another bight sign of what a solid job candidate we just hired for president!

When History Makes Sense

A week ago almost to the hour we experienced one of those rare moments when suddenly grand meaning descends on the turns of history.The election of Barak Obama marks the culmination of the Civil Rights struggle that was initiated with the emancipation proclamation of Abraham Lincoln. We reached the other end of the rainbow and found the pot of gold, the promise land. I stress we, that is, not only African American people, for this is an achievement for America as a whole, and Humanity at large.

The Great VIX Swoon

In the last few weeks, the VIX, aka the fear index, has been telling the story of equities's gyrations in the US as much as any other index. Of course, the epicenter of these seismic convulsions was elsewhere, in what, for brevity we could call Creditgeddon. As market pundits identified a bottom in the Friday, October 10's sell o, I, more modestly, saw a peak in the VIX intraday high of 76.94, attained on that day around 3 PM. [It turns out CBOE changed methodology for the computation of this index. You can still see charts with the old methodology's values, which thanks to CBOE's freely available data series (http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/historical.aspx) can be seen attaining 103.41 last Friday.]

As the belated awareness that a deep consumer-driven recession stole center stage from the credit markets, the convulsion continued. On Thursday, October 16, my prediction was promptly taken out by a new record of 81.17. Keep in mind that previous record before we entered the current regime of panic was 45.74 in the wake of LTCM and the Asian financial crisis. You would hardly believe that vix in Latin means hardly. But consider this:

Vix socer Iphiclus, vix me grandaevus Acastus, Vix mater gelida maesta refecit aqua

a couplet from Ovid's Epistles which can be translated as

My father-in-law Iphiclus, the good old Acastus, and my sorrowful mother, hardly recovered me by sprinkling my face with cold water

Looks like the typical reaction to these days' VIX jaggedness. If this was the S&P's EKG, one would spot a heart attack or something to that effect in it: equities are swooning and falling fast.

A MetaIgnobel Prize for the Bush Administration

This week, the Bush administration sealed another dubious (what else would you expect of Dubya?) achievement. Paul Krugman joins an impressive sequence of Nobel laureates who may be considered critics of the last eight years of US executive power. To varying extent, many of the laureates in the non-natural sciences prizes since 2000 have found fault with this administration. In Economics Joseph E. Stiglitz comes to mind, Harold Pinter in Literature, and notably, two former exponents of the US executive in Peace, Jimmy Carter and Al Gore, who, ironically, emerged as Bush's preeminent nemesis. In Italian graffiti, the symbol for down with! is an upside-down W, [as W itself means long live!, apparently a repetition of V for viva! Flipping it is akin to turning your thumb down] like this one

Time for history to flip that most powerful of initials ...

The recent backlash against short sellers is only the latest wave of scapegoating of the minority of market participants who engage in this basic kind of transaction. Every practitioner and scholar of the financial markets know that short selling, far from destabilizing the functioning of the markets, it actually makes them more efficient. Let me be clear, I am not speaking of fraudulent practices nor of naked shorting. Restricting short selling only favors "irrational exuberance," for it is akin to tie one of the two hands of the forces that make a price reflect the market's assessment of the value of a corporation. You can find an articulate discussion as to why restricting short selling is deleterious for the financial markets in http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/09/19/five-reasons-why-the-short-selling-ban-stinks/ Furthermore, I would like to point out [the following appeared as a comment in the above referenced blog] that there is a growing body of research that posits restrictions on short sales are one of the causes of bubbles and excessive price volatility. In a recent presentation Michael Lipkin exemplified with the case of identical stocks traded both in Shanghai (no shorts) and Hong Kong (shorts allowed) how shorting decreases volatility(http://www.ieor.columbia.edu/pdf-files/Lipkin_M_09_08_08.pdf p. 34-5)

In a recent Wall Street Journal piece Deborah Solomon, David Enrich And Daniel Fitzpatrick (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122238888884077341.html), wrote "BB&T Corp. Chief Executive Officer John Allison said a pay ceiling would constitute 'a massive subsidy for incompetence.' In a Sept. 23 letter to some members of Congress, Mr. Allison wrote: 'How will companies attract the leadership talent to manage their business effectively with irrational compensation limits?'" Mr. Allison's qualification of compensation limits as "irrational" seems disingenuous and, well, irrational at best. I would like to remind Mr.Allison that demand for such limits has arisen from the very performance of the CEOs and leading executives who have led the US into the current financial crisis. The pay scale of American CEOs has been growing to multiples of their European and Japanese peers. Has their performance been proportionally superior? The financial markets are answering with a resounding "no!" I submit it to Mr. Allison that it is precisely the current compensation structure of many financial institutions' executives that has contributed to the current crisis. Geared toward quarterly earnings performance, such incentives often neglected fundamental issues of long term growth including the very validity of the business model and even the survival of the corporation. Is that a rational way to pursue shareholders best interest and maximize their investment?

The downfall of Bear Stearns and Co. shares the tropes of a Greek Tragedy (following the pattern of http://antigonejournal.wordpress.com/2007/04/10/what-is-greek-tragedy/):

• Olbos: the initial prosperity, quite apparent from Bear's track record
• Hubris: Bear's reputation is not one of courtesy (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/18/business/NA-FIN-US-Bear-Stearns-Employees.php)
• Phthonis: the gods' jealousy and the ensuing warnings. Chatter of one Wall St. major's demise could be heard as early as last August. The prime candidate was Bear, the first to be hit with the forced liquidation of two hedge funds it controlled.
• Ate: persistence in reckless behavior. This was in the eyes of the historian beholder as far as the "long term hubris'' is concerned. Since August, and until the beginning of last week, it seemed it was business as usual at Bear's.
• Nemesis: the eventual ruin that the gods's retribution brings to bear.

"Facebook Fatigue'' was one of the least spectacular of the 10predictions that Business Week put out for 2008 (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22475182/). Others, such as oil breaking the $100 ceiling, have already come true. But judging from the anecdotal evidence of my dwindling Facebook e-mail notifications, I would say that many are already about-facebooking. I was one of the early weary Facebookees, tired almost as soon as I began. Already burdened with the plethora of communication we receive everywaking minute, the cuteness of a shared hand-drawn heart on your FunWall struck me at first, but after a few more such niceties I just could notmake myself care. Sharing your intimate acts of mundanity, such as baking cookies or cramming for your next job interview used to be the purview of phone calls to your friends or (better?) casual or not so casual conversation with friends and neighbors. Modern life exacts its toll: time. We often no longer have the luxury of face-to-face conversation. Social networking sites enter the scene, and there you go, our everyday exploits find another stage, one that potentially (depending on your privacy settings) includes the entire web community. (Incidentally, I find it intriguing that while many more or less consciously erect daunting barriers to friendship at the same time casually expose the minutia of life that only intimate relations are privy to---it's like fearing thevoyeur while living in a glass house ...) I have not read the mission statement of Facebook or myspace, but it stands to reason that they intend to amplify our ability to relate to our circle of friends and acquaintances and possibly extend it via new channels and content---a telephone (or e-mail) on steroids. Yet, it seems that instead of enriching and empowering our inner socialite, such sites de facto replace our social Self. Well, short of a Matrix-likeglobal simulation, the ultimate ersatz social interplay is a virtuallife, such as the one offered by http://secondlife.com/. This remark prompts my twist on the Business Week prediction. Those of us---probably (still!) a minority---who are really set on living vicariously through an avatar will gradually migrate to secondlife (or yet to be born similar virtual worlds---will there ever be a thirdlife.com, or an nthlife.com and how will these parallel universes interact?). The rest will slowly forsake their facebook profile to return to good ole face-to-face interaction, with telephone conversation and e-mail on theside. But every rule has its exceptions. On February 4th millions took to thestreets of 27 Colombian cities as well as 104 other cities around the world (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/08/business/protest11.php).This protest against the FARC kidnappings was the largest in the country's history. It was organized mainly through Facebook. In this case, the site helped create a new social network of individuals sharing a common cause. It stands to reason that most did not know each other. Yet, their degree of separation was likely very small. Facebook provided the organizational vehicle for the social epidemic to take fire. This is active social engagement not passive surrogation of existing relationships. And perhaps this is one way in which social networking sites will find their raison d'être after all.

It was a pleasure to hear Sen Clinton's emotional comeback, which is arguably one of the factors in her electoral comeback. Only the revelation that she had been coached by Actors Studio professionals could possibly be the nuke in the suitcase for this new dimension of her campaign... Conspiracy fancies apart, I felt some of the Obama's charisma in her victory speech. Particularly masterful was her transfiguration of Ralph Ellison's Invisible Man into "Invisible Americans." What a sweeping reappropriation of Edwards's leitmotiv while subtly (and literarily) alluding to Obama.

Paris Match's (or was it L' Express?)airbrushing of Sarokozy's love handle has been the buzz of "exposing journalism" in recent days. Some have emphasized how this fits into a recent trend in which leaders bare their breast or otherwise display their physical prowess: from Putin to the well known fatigues or runs of GW.

Once again, Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose, if you excuse my ... Look at this Mussolini fighting for wheat.

And how about a naked emperor (Trebonianus Gallus at the Metropolitan Museum)?

The Orchestra di Piazza Vittorio

A muezzim's cry over bass, drums and violins? Or a Tunisian counterpointing with a Senegalese singer sided by sax trumpet and some kind of Brazilian ukulele? I guess this could happe in NYC, and indeed this happened last night as part of the Tribeca Film Festival.

But I would have never guessed that this could have arisen from the Roman Sq. (Piazza Vittorio) where my grand-mother used to lure my 5 year old self
with Hungarian salami and other forbidden foods, and where the Russian emigrees, who had dubbed the place "round market," used to shop on the cheap. The market was disbanded in the early nineties and the area soon became. Rome's China town.
The area was and still is considered relatively unsafe and grungy. From the crucible of ethnicities the space for new sound appeared.
Last night I heard World Music, if there was ever anything representative of the genre this was it. I have ofted styled my native country as provincial. Last night I was proved wrong!
And happily so!
Sent from my BlackBerry wireless handheld.

The day after π-day (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_day) let me celebrate the other, unsung hero of transcendental numbers, I mean the number e, of course. If π is the poet of numbers, e is their workhorse, straddling pure and applied math, bearing the burden as the ... base. Let me propose an e-day! Let's see possible candidates: Obvious digital patterns: February 7 (with e-minute at 6:28 PM) July 2 (European) April 15 (Euler's taxing b-day) April 4 (Napier's death day---grim!---his b-day is unknown) Shall we vote? By the way, if MIT bakes the πs, Wall St. should foot the e-party's bill given that e is the foundation stone of quantitative finance ...

And after that we can establish Transcendental Day. I propose February 3 with trans-minute at 2:06 PM. (e^π ~ 23.1406926327793... the simplest function of the two giants of transcendence that has been proven transcendental, aka Gelfond's constant, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcendental_number)

Today (March 7, 2007) Izvestia (after ITAR-TASS) revealed that Jenna Bush signed a contract with Harper Collins to publish Anna's Story: a Journey of Hope http://www.izvestia.ru/news/news128867/ The contract is worth 300K to her. (Radar had caught the news in late January, but the Russian details have more ... pulp and perhaps less friction) According to Izvestia the book is a fictional journey of edification of a 17 year old HIV-positive single mother (anything else?), apparently inspired by Jenna's relief work in South and Central America. Its title and contents remind of (and hearken back?) Obama's Audacity of Hope One can't avoid speculating that this is another step into the making of a Bush Dauphine. She still has ten years to be eligible for a presidential ticket. Precocious campaign! (Talking about overworked kids, can you imagine a politico toddler fighting for a minimum play-time, or against quotas in minority dolls?)

Among the many absurdities that our Western comsumeristic society encourages the "wrong pursuit" is archetypal. To flesh up this sweeping and seeming moralistic contention, let me expound with an example.

Cappucinos. Or any frothy coffee beverage for that matter. Long ago I stopped buying such beverages at Starbuck's, and not only beacuse I perfected the art of frothing with my humble espresso maker. The main reason is actually the ease of extraction of the froth, none. Such beverages are served in paper cups that despite their Italian sizes (grande, venti, ok making "tall" sound Italian is a tall order) are just like any good old paper cup. But what makes the enjoyment of the froth a a near impossibility is the dutiful plastic lid with its small orifice. Now, praytell, what fraction of the froth can you manage to drink through that opening? And even if you are brave enough to lift the lid that protects you from the hot, law-suit-friendly liquids can you drink froth?

In the country where "cappuccino" and "latte" mix with "senza crema" or "chiaro" and a homogenous flow of kin words before the counters of hectic baristas, the solution is and has been threefold. The good ole ceramic cup, supported by its companion saucer, and (roll of drums) the tea-(or should I say "coffee-")spoon. Properly equipped with these implements, Italians can either mix the froth and reasonably drink it, or, as I suggest and like, eat it! It should be noted that Italian cappuccinos are usually smaller than the smallest size you order in the US and the froth is even a smaller fraction of the total. Froth, in my opinion, is not even the chief reason why most drink cappuccino in the Bel Paese. Some even dare order frothless cappuccinos (adding the aforementioned "senza crema" as "crema" has recently replaced the more literal "schiuma").

Instead, here in the US, it's a safe bet that we like it frothy. I was nearly allways able to get a plastic spoon (blame me for wasting for hedonism's sake) to scoop up the precious milky air, but I was the only one to do so and sometimes even told that doing so was weird. Well, certainly Starbuck's like it so. Think about the additional cost of providing all cappuccino and latte drinkers---not to mention the full fledged dessert beverages that sport whipped cream and other very "spoonable" delights on their tops--- with a spoon? And they do not seem to like the "Italian model" after which you would encourage staying customers to drink from ceramic cups, which are supposed to enhance the taste of such beverages. But do we like it so?

After all this criticizing you would probably think I do not patron Starbuck's. I do. I cannot easily find comparable quality on my hasty way to work in Manhattan. I do order drips, just plain coffee, usually choosing the more exotic blends, which they rotate every week, and I am grateful for this reasonably good quality. I seize my hot cup by the sleeve and with my free hand push the door open. As I step out into the morning bustle I turn toward the trash bin and think to myself how many cups half full of froth lie in there!