No prophet's welcome in his homeland

Among the universal surprise and the sense that the decision of the Nobel PeaceCommittee was not meant to recognize achievement but, in the words of the recipient, "to give momentum to a set of causes," most have already forgotten that exactly a month earlier the denigration of the current president of the USA reached a new low, one that did not even stop before the respect for the Office that the same partybrandished in defense in GW: Joe Wilson's infamous "You lie!"

But while his country is busy casting doubts on his competence, accomplishments, good faith, and even birth place, the rest of the world cannot help taking a huge breath of relief at the realization that Barack Obama is making good on his campaign promises, and has already brought the United States back into the consortium of a multilateral world. And this sense of relief is likely to have played a role in the Nobel Committee's choice, a reaction that seems proportional to the sense of despair that the previous administration had disseminated, a relief rally of hope as powerful as what we are witnessing in financial markets ...

I cannot help noticing how this dichotomy is yet another example of the saying that was first applied to Jesus Christ, that

A prophet is not without honor except in his homeland and in his own house (Matthew 13:57)

Declaration of Independence

For once, the highlight of my Independence Day was not pyrotechnics, but a small civic pilgrimage, and one most appropriate for the day. This afternoon I visited an exhibition at the central branch of the New York Public Library, where in the Sue and Edgar Wachenheim III Gallery, several early copies of the Declaration of Independence were on display. The intimate room homed copies of the original broadsides that were affixed or heralded on the streets of Philadelphia and New York immediately following the ratification of the document on July 4, 1776, apparently, a Thursday. The size of the Gallery created an atmosphere of civic religion, of respect for both the documents and the other visitors. A mother shared her marvel at the political vehemence of the Declaration's language stressing that if someone wrote that today he would be imprisoned. I was thinking to myself, not so fast, there is the first amendment, but then she added that that would be tantamount to igniting a revolution. Point taken, we are quire far from revolutions or even dissent. Indeed, last Wednesday night I happened on a quite singular form of fledgling dissent: a few dozen people penned on the side of Broadway near the intersection with 42nd, a demonstration. The sight was bizarre. The demonstrators were holding and seldom bobbing handwritten placards before a speaker. The fact that he was haranguing against the bill capping carbon emissions that recently (miraculously!) cleared the House of Representatives is besides the point. The size of the gathering contrasted with its volume, for the speech was amplified by woofers worth a metallica stadium performance. The echo boomed through the midtown canyons also known as avenues. The booms aroused one's curiosity and once you detected their source the anticlimax was disorienting. This could be a pattern, for I've seen other demonstrations similarly organized, and one in particular, in front of the MTA headquarters on Madison Ave., looked and sounded almost identical.

Is this how dissent is voiced in America today? If so, no wonder the real dissenters are invisible. Created by Ralph Ellison as a powerful racial metaphor, the figure of the invisible man briefly resurfaced in Hillary Clinton's campaign to denote the silent minorities who are under- and unrepresented. The invisible people today are the thousands of casualties from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the millions of under- and unemployed who make the statistics but seldom make our acquaintance. In the middle of the Sue and Edgar Wachenheim III Gallery two glass cases displayed the autographs of Thomas Jefferson original Declaration of Independence. This first version had been later heavily edited to expunge passages in which Jefferson condemned slavery. Jefferson had underlined the passages that had been deleted from the final version of the document. The handwriting was neatly calligraphic, but hardly legible both because of the diminutive size and the fading of the ink. On the fourth page though, one could easily make out "MEN," yes, in all capitals. Despite its frailty the document was alive through the force of its language. It whispered that I and all the other visitors, and all the other citizens of this city and this country were here because of this document. ``... Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness ...''

Two Samurais with Lots of Bonds

Just a few weeks ago the posturing of some the the new kids around the BRIC amplified the latest wave of rumors of demise of the greenback. Then, Masaharu Nakagawa, the shadow finance minister of Japan, added its own insult to injury envisioning his country demanding that the US issue samurai (yen-denominated) bonds! Who would have expected that the last of a long sequence of blows to the USD was to come from one of America's closest allies? (Upon closer inspection, one may surmise this was blow-back for the US continual support of the ruling LDP ...)

It didn't take long for the Japanese government to renege on the opposition's innuendos and reiterate their unshakable trust in US Treasuries. A day or two later, the communique of the G8 finance ministers from the sleepy city that lies on the tip of the Italian heel refurbishes a picture of unity in the face of the credit crisis and recession.

Surprise, surprise, this was not the end of it. In a grotesque turn of events, two Japanese men traveling with spotty documents are nabbed at the Italian-Swiss border with what looked like the steepest contraband booty of all time: US Treasuries with face value of 134+ billion USD! The US soon confirmed that the bonds were forgeries, thereby demolishing the pipe dream of Italian authorities to reap a fine that would amount to half the country's foreign currency reserves! But speculations are rife. How can it possibly be coincidence that just as the chatter of divesting from Treasuries churns up what looks like a surreptitious maneuver to do precisely that is botched?

Once again, it looks like rumors of the US dollar demise were greatly exaggerated---and this time the rescuers were a couple of Italian border guards....

Trekonomics

Last Saturday night unusual hurdles met my attempt to see a mere movie at the local AMC theater. A staff member was mounting guard at the escalator, which seemed to work in good order. After some puzzlement, I understood that showing my ticket was necessary to obtain passage. Having reached the floor where my ordinary movie was being shown I startled at another first: the line to the IMAX theater was stretching all the way to this lower floor. I then realized such a line must be trekking. Has the economy really turned around if so many people can afford an IMAX ticket, not to mention put up with the crowd affliction? Or is this the climax of the "green shoots" view of the state of the economy?

Perhaps the answer is ... Trekonomics!?

Skill and Meta-skills for the Unemployed

In an interview with Michel Martin of NPR's Tell me More, Barbara Ehrenreich entertained questions on her recent op-ed in the LA Times Trying to find a job is not a job I found her opinions refreshingly nonconventional. However, her answer to the concluding question, one that by that time sounded like the pre-revolutionary What is to be Done, seemed a bit disingenuous. Ms. Ehrenreich lamented that most laid offworkers have well-developed skills and that those skills are going to waste in haphazardly selected retraining programs. Besides the fact that this sounded more like a (valid!) complaint than an answer, the grievance ignores its likely cause, namely, that is precisely the plummeting demand for those skills that has spurred layoffs in the first place. And in many cases this is the continuation of a trend, largely driven by the globalization of our economy, that our current recession has all but exacerbated. This is particularly true formanufacturing jobs. Ms. Ehrenreich mentioned the skills of a welder. Most cost-cutting manufacturers would offshore a welding job to some workshop in developing countries where it can lead to a product whose final cost is a fraction of the cost of employing a local welder. What to do then so as not to waste Mr. Welder's experience? Perhaps the answer is to smartly select retraining. In other words, orient our local manufacturing workers toward retraining courses that build on existing experience rather than in a completely different and unrelated area. At the same time, it is probably advisable that the training lay out some general foundation that could serve as the springboard for further training down the road. A few years ago, advising Mr. Welder to become an expert in the maintenance of welding robots would have seemed surefire. The current slump in car manufacturing makes it likely the demand for such new expertise is going to collapse if it has not already done so. This suggests paradigm shift in the workplace: from the expectation of a job in which a given skill set would be employable for life to life-long learning a re-qualification that gradually builds on prior experience. The most valuable skill of today's worker is effective stewardship and development of her/is skills.

A specter is haunting the US Senate--the Specter of communism!

Arlen Specter switched party and immediately and his choice was spinned as political gamesmanship by his former colleagues. But I cannot wonder what were they thinking? One would think the party that not so long ago was on the verge of obliterating filibuster, and now, the table turned, was very much inclined to use the very same tool should have been striving to keep it within reach. Instead, they kept taking Specter (and other moderates) for granted and unleashed Patrick J. Toomey to undermine him in the primaries. It seems the GOP functions with an efficiency similar to the goverment it so much vilifies. Perhaps, they are applying the same philosophy of laissez-faire they think appropriate for the automakers to themselves, a stronger and smaller party, or perhaps no party at all, subject to political market forces. But in the short term I seem to already hear the Rush Limbaughs of the world screaming "Specter of communism!"

If you are so good, why aren't you rich?

In a New York Times Editorial of April 27, 2009, on the on-again, off-again issue of high pay scale on Wall Street Paul Krugman did not mention another, by now trite, justification, namely, the ability to attract the best and the brightest. This point has been easily dismissed by the evidence of brilliance that the lead actors in the current crisis displayed. However, a refuting argument pre-existed 2008 and was often neglected: the fallacy of the assumption that "the best and brightest" (period!) would be "selling" their creative lives to the highest bidder. Such assumption not only reduces our common value scale to pay scale, but is also diminishing to those who subscribe to the alternative ethics in which "best" is not synonymous of highest net worth or income. Paraphrasing a common saying, Wall St. seems to ask "if you are so good, why aren't you so rich?" Besides this apparent moral fallacy, basing human resources strategies on unfettered and exuberant compensation, lends itself to conflicts of interest. As Dr. Krugman and many others have observed, the existing compensation system on Wall St. rewarded short-sighted risk taking. Was this any surprise when the risk takers were hired and made a career primarily if not solely motivated by compensation? It's a common joke on and by the Street that the high and not so-high flyers are there for the money. Being there for the money is likely to be at odds with being there for the shareholders, let alone for the benefit of the economy at large. Let me suggest that the best and brightest denizens of Wall St. think of a more symbiotic motivation for their would-be peers.

Bernie wakes up on Friday the 13th

Two consecutive Friday the 13th's! Can you take it? May be you are not friggatriskaidekaphobic, yet you are difriggatriskaidekaphobic ....Well, it can only happen in February-March on a non-leap year, more precisely every non-leap year when February 13 falls on Friday, hence about every 6+ years. One person who definitely will find it hard to take it is he who will be rising from a bunk bed in a closet size cell after years of 7-million dollar penthouse living. Yes, Bernie Madoff. Unfortunately, while the size of his new residence is quite transparent, there's been much confusion on the size of the loss hence the recoverable amount. Based ont the latest statements, his clients had investments of $64.8 bn. But hey, everyonen knows this was a Ponzi scheme, which means that amount is based on years of misstated returns, probably as many as ... 13 years. Counting only the net investment into Madoff funds, prosecutors are looking at a maximum recoverable amount of 10 to 17 billions, perhaps ... 13!

Trillyawns

Trillions are long and boring numbers, and Bernanke's great at counting.

[Check the WSJ and GettyImages for background ]

A power vacuum between Bush and Obama!

In case you have not noticed, today, between 12 noon and 12:04, the United States of America had no recognized leader. The 20th amendment prescribes

The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January

At noon, on this January 20th, 2009, George W. Bush's term had thankfully ended, but it wasn't until 12:04 that Barak H. Obama had pronounced the solemn "so help me God!" delayed by an anticlimactic organization to the political event of the century and even a slight blunder by Justice Roberts. I would be surprised if anyone complained, but can't help wondering who was formally in charge during those suspenseful four minutes. Perhaps Joe Biden who had been sworn in just before noon? I suppose so if you interpret ceremonial tie-up as failure to qualify in section 3 of the same article:

If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified

Be that as it may, such vacuum sets an even deeper break with the eight years of damaging continuity of power that preceded it!

The Continuity of Hope

In an inauguration appropriately punctuated by emotion, John Williams' arrangement of Air and Simple Gifts was an exquisite homage to the playful hope of Copland's Appalachian Spring. The theme itself can be traced back to a the Shacker song Simple Gifts. This, can be regarded as a hymn to the basic values that our new president, Barack Hussein Obama, has been advocating from the outset of his campaign and stressed in his inaugural address. Hope is audacious after years of straying from those values, but this musical theme too reminded us that those values are at the foundation of our culture and that we were once living by them.

After the Audacity of Hope there comes the Continuity of Hope.